When India Bullion and Jewellers Association (IBJA) released its latest rates on 15 October 2025, gold prices surged by ₹540 per 10 g, pushing 24‑carat gold to ₹1,29,040 in the capital Delhi just days before Diwali 2025India. The global spot price of Gold settled at $4,160.57 per ounce, a 0.81 % rise that echoed the domestic rally. Meanwhile, silver slipped slightly, ending at $51.98 per ounce, a 0.96 % dip.
Background: Gold Prices Around the Festive Season
India’s jewellery market traditionally heats up during the Diwali‑Dhanteras window, when families buy gold as both a cultural offering and a hedge against inflation. Over the past decade, the average pre‑Diwali price jump has hovered around 3‑4 %, but this year’s surge topped 4 % in just three trading sessions.
World Gold Council, the industry‑wide watchdog, warned on 13 October that “geopolitical tensions in Europe and a tighter U.S. monetary stance are funneling fresh demand into safe‑haven assets, and India is the biggest single‑country consumer of gold.” That comment helps explain why the market reacted so sharply to the IBJA’s announcement.
Day‑by‑Day Price Movements
On 13 October, gold was quoted at ₹1,25,200 per 10 g. The next day, IBJA’s morning bulletin put the 999‑purity rate at ₹1,25,682, which crept up to ₹1,26,152 by the evening session. By Wednesday, the figure jumped to ₹1,29,040 – a three‑day climb of nearly 3 %.
Silver, by contrast, rose modestly on Tuesday from ₹1,76,175 to ₹1,78,100 per kg, only to tumble on Thursday by ₹5,917 per kg, settling at ₹1,68,083. The silver‑to‑gold ratio widened to 80.05, signalling that investors were favouring the latter as a store of value.
Regional Spot Prices
Spot rates varied slightly across major hubs. In Mumbai, 18‑carat gold fetched ₹96,970 per 10 g, while Chennai quoted a marginal premium at ₹97,700. Kolkat and Indore hovered around ₹96,970‑₹97,020. These differentials reflect local tax structures and transport costs, but the overall upward trajectory was uniform.
Futures Market and Silver Trends
On the MCX futures board, 24‑carat gold hit a record ₹1,28,395 per 10 g, while silver futures surged to a historic ₹1,64,660 per kg. These levels signal that traders are betting on continued buying pressure through the festive weeks.
IBJA’s data, however, exclude GST. Factoring in the 3 % tax pushes the effective retail price for a 10‑gram 24‑carat bar to roughly ₹1,33,000, a figure that many first‑time buyers find daunting.
Factors Driving the Surge
- Geopolitical risk: Heightened tensions in Eastern Europe and the Middle East have fed appetite for safe‑haven metals.
- Domestic festive demand: Diwali and Dhanteras traditions compel families to purchase gold as gifts and auspicious investments.
- Inflation worries: India’s CPI rose to 6.2 % in September, prompting investors to lock in wealth in tangible assets.
- Currency dynamics: The rupee weakened slightly against the dollar, making foreign‑priced gold more expensive and boosting domestic hoarding.
- Supply constraints: Global mine output slipped by 1.5 % in Q3 2025, tightening the market.
Financial analyst Ananya Gupta of Equity Research India told us, “If the rupee stays flat and global tensions persist, we could see gold breaching the ₹1,35,000 mark before the end of November.”
What Investors Should Expect
Short‑term volatility is likely to stay high. Traders are watching the United States Federal Reserve’s next policy meeting (scheduled for 31 October) for clues on interest‑rate direction. A dovish stance could keep the gold rally alive, while a surprise rate hike might temper enthusiasm.
For ordinary consumers, the key takeaway is timing. Buying before the festival rush could shave a few hundred rupees off the final bill, but waiting too long may mean paying a premium that eclipses the traditional 2‑3 % festive uplift.
Key Facts at a Glance
- Date of latest price hike: 15 October 2025
- 24‑carat gold spot price in Delhi: ₹1,29,040 per 10 g
- Global gold price: $4,160.57 per ounce
- Silver price dip: –₹5,917 per kg on 16 Oct
- Gold‑to‑silver ratio: 80.05
Frequently Asked Questions
Why are gold prices rising ahead of Diwali?
The festive season triggers a cultural surge in gold buying, while global uncertainty – from geopolitical tensions to inflation – fuels safe‑haven demand. Together they push prices up by roughly 3‑4 % in the weeks before Diwali.
How does the GST affect the final cost for consumers?
GST in India is 3 % on jewellery. Since IBJA’s published rates are GST‑exclusive, a 10‑gram 24‑carat bar priced at ₹1,29,040 effectively costs about ₹1,33,000 after tax, adding roughly ₹4,000 to the purchase price.
What impact could the U.S. Federal Reserve meeting have on gold?
If the Fed signals lower rates or pauses hikes, gold usually benefits as the opportunity cost of holding non‑yielding assets drops. Conversely, an unexpected rate increase could strengthen the dollar and temper the Indian rupee, potentially cooling the rally.
Are there regional price differences worth noting?
Yes. While Delhi leads the price chart, Mumbai and Chennai show slightly lower rates for 18‑carat gold (around ₹96,970‑₹97,700 per 10 g). These gaps stem from transport costs, local taxes and varying dealer margins.
Should investors consider buying gold now or wait for a potential correction?
Analysts advise caution. If you need gold for gifting, buying before the festival avoids the premium that often spikes post‑Diwali. For pure investment, monitoring the Fed’s decision and any sharp rupee moves can help time a more favourable entry.
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